Predictive risk analysis EY has developed a predictive risk analysis tool that helps determine areas that should be strengthened to stop introducing risk and areas that should be maintained to continue to mitigate risk. Forcefield analysis Project selection Governance Project management Team’s teaming capability Suppliers capability Multi-team collaboration Team discipline Program accountabilities Team credibility Deadline effect –200 –100 0 100 200 Force factor Impact on project success prediction Once the predictive risk analysis is complete and it is determined which areas are introducing risk, the impact on project success can be predicted. The impact is measured as the risk of missing, or experience slippage, on one of the factors for success. We have found six primary factors that define success and have to be considered in trade-off decisions for a project: time, cost, benefits, scope, quality and organization. As part of defining success factors for the project, the relative priority of these factors should be determined for decision trade-off purposes. At most, two of these factors should be the highest priority for the project (e.g., benefits and time), with the other factors being given successively lower priority. Identifying more than two factors as the highest priority for success limits the ability for making effective trade-off decisions, aligning project operational decision making at all levels and in implementing risk mitigation activities (i.e., decision empowerment). These success factor priorities must be communicated to the governing bodies and the project team so decisions are aligned throughout the project. 8 | Unlocking the value of your program investments